Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Forecasting and optimising electoral geographies
A UK local authority combined VICUS electorate forecasts, detailed planning evidence and QUEST optimisation to test future electoral divisions and maintain broadly balanced representation.
- Client
- UK local authority
- Platforms
- VICUS + QUEST
- Purpose
- Electoral review
Forecast-led geography for balanced future representation
The business challenge
How should electoral divisions adapt to future population and housing growth?
Context
A local authority's electoral review needed to consider the number, size and boundaries of divisions. Uneven population growth meant current electorate patterns alone were an insufficient basis for future representation.
Requirement
Forecast the electorate at detailed geographies, incorporate planned housing growth and test alternative division configurations against a defined level of electoral equality.
Method
- 01
Electorate forecasts
Applied VICUS across divisions, polling districts, parishes and parish wards using demographic and planning evidence.
- 02
Growth scenarios
Compared a housing-led forecast with an ONS-aligned trajectory distributed using local planning data.
- 03
Boundary optimisation
Used QUEST to test alternative division numbers and configurations within a defined 10% variation.
Outputs & significance
Future-ready electoral geography
+/-10%
Detailed evidence
Forecast future electorates for existing divisions and their smaller constituent geographies.
Alternative configurations
Generated boundary scenarios for different target numbers of electoral divisions.
Electoral equality
Designed configurations to achieve broadly balanced electorates within the specified 10% variation.
Significance
Future populations - not only today's - shaped the boundaries
Combining forecasting, planning data and optimisation provided a transparent basis for balancing electoral equality, geography and future growth.