Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Estimating population yield of new homes
Edge Analytics developed a Population Yield model to estimate who new housing developments will accommodate and how that evidence can inform S106 calculations.
- Users
- Health + education
- Model
- Population Yield
- Purpose
- S106 evidence
Site-level evidence for infrastructure contributions and service planning
The business challenge
Who will live in new homes - and what will communities need?
Context
Health and education providers need robust evidence on how new housing will affect communities and infrastructure. Section 106 agreements are legally binding commitments with developers, often involving financial and non-financial obligations. Edge Analytics developed the Population Yield model to provide a consistent evidence base.
Requirement
Create consistent yield evidence by property size, type, tenure and age group, including the share of residents moving from outside the local area.
Method
- 01
Development inputs
Captured dwellings or care-home bedspaces, property size, type and tenure, age restrictions, and postcode or X–Y coordinates.
- 02
Population sub-model
Combined Census and address data to produce small-area population estimates for each new housing scheme.
- 03
Migration origin
Combined Census, mid-year estimate migration statistics and Royal Mail Home Movers data to estimate residents’ origins.
Outputs & significance
A consistent basis for S106
S106
Development occupancy
Estimated total population by property size, type, tenure and age group for the proposed development.
Resident origins
Showed the proportion of residents moving from outside the local area versus those moving from within.
Repeatable site evidence
Created a consistent development-site assessment and robust basis for health and education S106 calculations.
Significance
Development impacts become specific and defensible
Detailed scheme inputs and historical evidence produce a transparent view of who will occupy new homes and how much of that population is additional to the local area.