Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Growth forecasts for wastewater catchment areas
Edge Analytics combined CONSILIUM housing intelligence with VICUS demographic forecasting to produce robust population and housing forecasts for Yorkshire Water’s wastewater geographies.
- Client
- Yorkshire Water
- Platforms
- CONSILIUM + VICUS
- Horizon
- 2050
Forecast evidence for long-term wastewater planning and PR24
The business challenge
How can growth be forecast consistently across every operational geography?
Context
Yorkshire Water provides water and wastewater services to more than five million people. Long-term development and delivery planning is underpinned by Environment Agency and Ofwat guidance. Following forecasts for water-resource planning, equivalent evidence was required at a finer wastewater geography to inform PR24.
Requirement
Forecasts aligned to ONS base data and local housing-growth plans, covering Drainage Area Zones, wastewater catchments, sewer-pipe and network areas, and Output Areas.
Method
- 01
Development evidence
CONSILIUM supplied development-site locations, planned dwelling numbers and expected phasing across the operating area.
- 02
Demographic modelling
VICUS applied cohort-component and representative-rate methods consistent with ONS practice, using population, fertility, mortality, migration, household and property assumptions.
- 03
Operational configuration
The combined framework translated local-plan evidence into consistent forecasts for each wastewater geography, supported by transparent methodology.
Outputs & significance
A defensible forecast suite
2050
Scenario-led forecasts
Trend- and housing-led scenarios for population, household and non-household population, average household size and property numbers.
Micro-level planning evidence
A CONSILIUM local-plan feed for each planning authority, including development-site location, scale and phasing.
Transparent reporting
A methodological report documenting the approach, outcomes and uncertainty across the requested forecast horizons.
Significance
One robust framework aligned water-resource and wastewater planning
Alternative trend- and housing-led forecasts gave Yorkshire Water a credible range of outcomes for long-term decisions while meeting exacting regulatory standards.