Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Hidden and transient populations
Edge Analytics developed an H&T Population Model to estimate populations that can materially affect demand forecasting and regulatory reporting.
- Users
- Water companies
- Platform
- VICUS - H&T
- Purpose
- Demand + reporting
Robust estimates for populations excluded from usual-resident statistics
The business challenge
How much service demand is hidden from official population estimates?
Context
Irregular migrants, short-term residents, second-address populations and visitors are excluded from usual-resident statistics or have transient impacts. For water companies, these groups affect water-balance calculations, WRMP and DWMP evidence and annual reporting to Ofwat.
Requirement
Estimate multiple hidden and transient populations consistently across operational geographies and uncertainty ranges.
Method
- 01
Official baselines
Used ONS mid-year estimates and Census evidence on students, short-term residence and second addresses.
- 02
Specialist evidence
Integrated published research on irregular migration and domestic and international visitor surveys.
- 03
Scenario estimation
Produced low, medium and high estimates for each population group and geography.
Outputs & significance
Hidden populations change demand
H&T
Scenario ranges
Generated low, medium and high estimates for each hidden and transient population group.
Flexible geography
Scaled outputs to customisable operational and reporting geographies.
Industry integration
Aligned estimates with water-balance calculations, PCC measures and official leakage reporting.
Significance
Official population is not the whole population
An extensive, updateable evidence base created a more robust view of service demand where no single definitive H&T dataset exists.