Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
National Park demographic futures
Edge Analytics developed demographic profiles and growth scenarios for the Yorkshire Dales National Park to inform socioeconomic and housing evidence.
- Client
- YDNP Authority
- Platform
- VICUS
- Purpose
- SEA + SHMA evidence
Long-term population, housing and labour-force evidence for a protected landscape
The business challenge
How can a National Park sustain communities as its population ages and declines?
Context
The Yorkshire Dales National Park Authority needed robust demographic evidence for its Socioeconomic Wellbeing Assessment and Strategic Housing Market Assessment. Concerns centred on population ageing and decline, the future of local services and the economic vitality of communities spread across several local-authority districts.
Requirement
Profile historic change and test how alternative housing and migration assumptions could affect population, households and the labour force.
Method
- 01
Historic profile
Created a National Park evidence base showing population change and its components since 2001.
- 02
Age + economy
Analysed age structure, employment and commuting across the Park and its constituent areas.
- 03
Scenario forecasts
Modelled population, households, dwellings and labour-force outcomes under alternative futures.
Outputs & significance
Housing provision supports resilience
7%
Declining child cohorts
Pre-school, primary and secondary school-age populations all declined after 2001.
Shrinking labour force
The core labour-force population reduced by 7%, while the 65+ population grew year-on-year.
Managed migration
Higher housing provision and net migration curtailed decline and reduced imbalance between age groups.
Significance
Demographic futures are policy choices
Scenario evidence showed how carefully managed housing and migration could sustain the resident labour force while respecting the National Park's distinctive identity.