Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Planning for special educational needs
Edge Analytics uses its EDGE-UCATE SEN model to help councils understand current need and forecast future demand for specialist provision.
- Users
- Local authorities
- Platform
- EDGE-UCATE SEN
- Purpose
- Specialist places
Integrated demand, provision and travel evidence for statutory SEN planning
The business challenge
Where will specialist education demand grow and what provision will be needed?
Context
The number of children with Education, Health and Care Plans has risen sharply, increasing financial and statutory pressure on councils. Robust forecasts are needed to manage existing services, target investment and avoid under-provision of specialist places.
Requirement
Integrate pupil, provision, housing, population and travel evidence into a consistent view of current and future SEN demand.
Method
- 01
Need + provision
Combined historic EHCP evidence with every SEN setting, its capacity, type, age range and location.
- 02
Growth forecasts
Applied housing-led single-year-of-age population forecasts using VICUS technology.
- 03
Pupil movement
Calculated home-to-school travel distances and flows between residential areas and settings.
Outputs & significance
SEN demand continues to rise
71%
Changing need
Historical EHCP trends created the evidence base for estimating future SEN demand.
Detailed forecasts
Produced demand and provision by residence, year group, SEN type, setting type and location.
Travel intelligence
Summarised pupil flows and home-to-school distances by need and provision type.
Significance
Growth continues before cohorts ease
Forecasts indicated continued pressure through the decade, before smaller birth cohorts begin to temper demand supporting earlier, better-targeted investment.