Applied Intelligence Briefing
Edge Analytics / Applied Intelligence BriefingCase study
Regional forecasts for micro-geographies
Edge Analytics used VICUS and planned housing data to deliver long-term population and household projections for WRSE and its micro-geographies.
- Client
- Water Resources South East
- Platforms
- VICUS + CONSILIUM
- Horizons
- 25 + 75 years
Regional demographic evidence for water-resource planning
The business challenge
How can six water companies plan from one consistent demographic evidence base?
Context
Water Resources South East (WRSE) brings together Affinity Water, Portsmouth Water, SES Water, South East Water, Southern Water and Thames Water. The alliance needed long-term population and household projections for a region of almost 20 million people, covering both the macro-region and each company’s micro-geographies.
Requirement
Create one evidence base for individual and combined Water Resource Management Plans, combining official demographics with planned housing growth and outputs aligned to Environment Agency and Ofwat standards.
Method
- 01
Geographic framework
Defined both macro- and micro-level water-company geographies, enabling consistent regional and local comparison.
- 02
Demographic modelling
Applied VICUS cohort-component models using population, births, deaths, migration and properties for any area and horizon.
- 03
Housing-led scenarios
Integrated CONSILIUM housing distributions and trajectories, including Oxford–Cambridge regional growth ambitions.
Outputs & significance
A regulatory-ready forecast suite
+25%
Multi-horizon scenarios
Delivered 25- and 75-year forecasts for the macro-region, each water company and micro-level Output Areas.
Trend and housing-led
Produced alternative growth scenarios, including the Oxford–Cambridge regional growth corridor ambitions.
Regulatory delivery
Supplied consistent outputs to WRSE and all six companies, with full methodology and data visualisation.
Significance
Housing-led growth reached 25% by 2050
That compared with 9% under the latest official trend scenario. VICUS provided one industry-standard framework across every geography and time horizon, meeting exacting regulatory standards.