Every growth plan is a water plan

Growth begins with water

Where will tomorrow’s water demand come from? New homes are only part of the equation. Every office, factory, school, data centre and energy project depends on water and many create additional wastewater requirements. If housing, economic development and infrastructure are planned separately, their combined demands may become visible when it is too late.

The Environment Agency estimates that, without further action, England could face a public water-supply deficit of up to five billion litres per day by 2055. A further one billion litres per day could be required by other sectors.¹ These are distinct estimates, but together they underline a simple truth: planning for growth and planning for water should no longer be separate exercises.

Seeing the whole picture

Population and household forecasts remain fundamental. Water companies need to understand where people will live, how many households they will form and how occupancy and consumption might change. But non-household users already account for around 20% of water entering public supply.¹ Economic change, new technologies and major infrastructure can also create concentrated local demands.

This is why Edge Analytics has extended forecasting beyond population alone. Our commercial-property forecasting model combines business counts, demographic forecasts and property data to produce multiple alternative growth scenarios across water geography areas, differentiated by business sector and size. Rather than assuming one predictable economic future, the approach provides a transparent way to test how different localised commercial trajectories could affect infrastructure demand.

Bringing future development into view

Housing evidence presents a related challenge. Local Plans typically look forward around 15 years, while water and wastewater assets must be planned over much longer horizons.

Through our CONSILIUM data platform, Edge collates and standardises both Local Plan housing evidence and Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment data. The latter can identify potential development sites that do not yet feature in adopted housing trajectories. They are judged to be possibilities (not commitments), but geocoding, assessing and ranking them allows their potential implications to be considered and explored.

VICUS can incorporate these sites into alternative population and property scenarios, testing different assumptions about capacity, timing and delivery. This helps reveal where pressures could emerge beyond the current plan period, without presenting uncertain development as inevitable.

One evidence base, many futures

A joined-up approach does not mean imposing a single forecast. It means using consistent evidence to examine multiple possible futures.

VICUS connects demographic and property change. CONSILIUM provides detailed housing intelligence. In addition, our LOCI platform and Understanding English Places add contextual insight as to the economic character and function of places.

Current water-resource guidance and Defra’s New Vision for Water call for closer alignment between water companies, planning authorities and other sectors, supported by scenario testing and adaptive planning.^{2 3}

Bringing these perspectives together allows water to be considered early, as an enabler of sustainable growth, rather than a constraint on development discovered too late.

Every growth plan must also be a water plan.

References

1. Environment Agency, National Framework for Water Resources 2025.
2. Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales and Ofwat, Water Resources Planning Guideline (2026).
3. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, A New Vision for Water (2026).